Where the race stands, six weeks before the election

By Anthony Pendleton and Megan Ingros

University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Information for this story was also contributed by Paige Hobbs, Cheyene Miller and Tyler Spanyer.

In less than two months, Kentucky voters will head to the polls to vote in the election for the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell is facing off against national Democratic newcomer Alison Lundergan Grimes.

This is arguably the most important and most-watched race in the nation. McConnell, 72, is the Senate minority leader, meaning he’s the top official of the party that has fewer members in the Senate. He is expected to become majority leader if the GOP wins enough seats to take control of the chamber.

Grimes, 35, would be Kentucky’s first female senator, and the state’s first Democratic senator since 1999. She is Kentucky's secretary of state – a position she won in 2011, her first elected public office.

             As the state’s chief election officer, Grimes got the legislature to approve changes to help overseas military voting, but the new law does not allow soldiers to vote electronically, as she wanted. Grimes also started a program that allows victims of domestic violence and sexual assault to "remove their addresses from public voter registration records in an attempt to stay safe from their abusers," as described by the Lexington Herald-Leader.

             McConnell says his leadership job puts him in the middle of every big decision in Washington, and that he will be even more powerful, as majority leader, if Republicans take control of the Senate. Grimes wants McConnell’s long history in Washington to be viewed as a liability, by painting him as an architect of Washington gridlock.  

             Over the course of his nearly 30-year Senate career, McConnell is best known nationally for his fights against limits on campaign contributions and spending. In a secretly recorded talk in June, he said the 2001 passage of the McCain-Feingold law limiting donations to political parties was “the worst day of my political life.”

             McConnell’s big issue in this race has been coal, blaming Environmental Protection Agency regulations for the loss of mining jobs in Eastern Kentucky. Disinterested observers have noted other factors, especially cheap natural gas that has displaced coal as an electric-generating fuel.

             McConnell has identified Grimes with President Obama, who is unpopular in Kentucky, based largely on her statement during her 2011 campaign that she supported the national Democratic platform. That seems to be working for him, as he has built leads in coal-bearing Eastern and Western Kentucky.

Grimes has replied with an ad saying “I’m not Barack Obama. I disagree with him on guns, coal and the EPA.” She also talks about coal miners’ safety and health, and her campaign has called McConnell’s record on those issues “deplorable.”

             The underlying issue is jobs. Kentucky’s unemployment rate remains higher than the rest of the country, and both candidates promise to promote job growth in the state.

Grimes has tried to make much of McConnell’s remark, when asked in Beattyville what he would do to bring jobs to Lee County, that “Economic development is a Frankfort issue. That is not my job.” McConnell has said he was in Beattyville to discuss jobs, and did so in a speech after the reporter left.

Grimes has focused on economic issues such as equal pay for women -- but has been unable to keep a clear lead among female voters – and raising the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour over three years, from $7.25.

McConnell, citing a report from the Congressional Budget Office, has said raising the wage to that level would cost half a million jobs, but has also said there might be circumstances in which it could be raised, after the economy improves more.

McConnell wants to repeal the federal health-care reform law while Grimes wants to delay its coverage mandate and make other changes. She says McConnell’s approach would risk the coverage of 521,000 people who have obtained it through the state exchange established under the law.

On immigration, Grimes supports the bipartisan, comprehensive reform bill that passed the Senate and would create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. McConnell has said only legal residency is needed to attract needed workers, and immigration reform should be done through separate bills after the border is secure.

Grimes and McConnell have had one joint question-and-answer session, before directors of the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation. KET will host a debate between them Oct. 13. The debate will not include Libertarian David Patterson, a 43 year-old Harrodsburg police officer who didn’t get his name on the ballot until August.

Ad ties Grimes to Buffett, blames him for plant closure; senator hit for absences for other events

A rolling roundup as we head through the weekend . . .

• Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, a "super PAC" supporting Sen. Mitch McConnell, is starting a 60-second radio ad attacking Alison Lundergan Grimes for a fund-raising event, the invitation for which said billionaire Warren Buffett would participate by conference call. The call was canceled, apparently after Breitbart.com reported Buffett's role, and a further report noted the decision by one of the companies he owns, Fruit of the Loom, to close a plant in Jamestown with 600 employees. The ad stretches the truth, making it appear that Buffett was to be at the event and personally closed the plant, adding, "Buffett destroyed 600 families to make a buck." Grimes spokeswoman Charly Norton told PoliticoPro that Buffett "was invited by a host who has a personal connection" with him. "However, our campaign made clear that we did not think it was appropriate. We agree with Buffett that millionaires and billionaires should pay their fair share in taxes. However, Alison strongly disagrees with him on the outsourcing of good Kentucky jobs — just as she disagrees with Mitch McConnell's record of voting for tax breaks that encourage companies to send jobs overseas." UPDATE, Sept. 23: KSL says the ad is running in the Lexington and Bowling Green media markets, and addition "rural radio in that region of Kentucky."
• A new Grimes ad redoubles her attack on McConnell's lack of attendance at Senate committee meetings, saying he missed some to attend a lobbyist's fundraiser and appear on two television shows and skipping a meeting on rural jobs to toast China's vice president for "China's great achievements. And the rest of the time, he created gridlock. Thirty years is long enough."
  
  The issue is similar to the one McConnell used to unseat two-term Democrat Walter "Dee" Huddleston in 1984, missing votes to make speeches for money. But that attack didn't take hold until McConnell and ad consultant Roger Ailes used the famous hound dogs to look for Huddleston. A McConnell ad replying to the first ad on this issue is still running, claiming his "voting attendance" is 99 percent. However, that's for floor votes, not committee meetings.
• Former two-term state auditor Crit Luallen is being heard in a recorded "robocall" for Grimes, which is going to more than 100,000 households, Norton said. A tagline after Luallen's 40-second message says it is paid for by the state Democratic Party but is authorized by the Grimes campaign. UPDATE, Sept. 22: The campaign says former Gov. Martha Layne Collins was heard in robocall that went to more than 200,000 voters.
• Kevin Wheatley of cn|2 has a pair of stories looking at the potential and pitfalls of the Oct. 13 KET debate for Grimes and McConnell.
• Grimes's ad showing her shooting a gun and saying "I'm not Barack Obama" was "a colossal misstep" because it gave McConnell another opportunity to air a reply ad hammering on her endorsement of the national Democratic platform, Sam Youngman of the Lexington Herald-Leader said on KET's "Comment on Kentucky" Friday night. He noted that on Monday, McConnell against voted against paycheck fairness for women, one of her key issues: "Her own campaign got them off message."
• On the front page of Sunday's Herald-Leader, Youngman has a story headlined "Grimes owns small stake in company city threatened legal action against over unpaid fees, fines." Her father, Jerry Lundergan, said she owns a 1 percent interest. He paid part of the amount after the threat, and most of it the day after a Republican-oriented research firm requested records about it.
• Herald-Leader columnist Larry Dale Keeling says it's too late for Grimes to campaign on the health-reform law, and doing it now would look panicked and desperate.

McConnell agrees to KET debate (no Patterson), gets help from NRA mailer; editor defends jobs quote

Finally, a real debate has been scheduled; and there's more news and commentary:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell has accepted KET’s invitation to debate Alison Lundergan Grimes Oct. 13, three weeks before the election and about six weeks after Labor Day, when he wanted to end a series of debates he proposed. "Host Bill Goodman will moderate the debate and ask questions, and viewers will be allowed to call in with their questions, said Tim Bischoff, a spokesman for the state's educational television network," reports Joseph Gerth of The Courier-Journal. "Josh Holmes, an adviser to McConnell, said that the campaign is in discussions about other potential debates but has nothing to announce at this time." Grimes campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said their campaign hopes for "several more debates."
• Bischoff said Libertarian Party candidate David Patterson did not meet the criteria that the network said must be met by Aug. 15, including acceptance of at least $100,000 in campaign contributions and getting at least 10 percent support in an independent, professional poll.
• The National Rifle Association has sent a mailer to Kentucky residents that says,"McConnell will stop the Obama/Bloomberg Gun Control agenda . . . the biggest threat to your Second Amendment rights in Obama's final years in office. ' of President Obama and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg." Kevin Willis of WKYU-FM in Bowling Green notes that the mailer was sent shortly after it was revealed that McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, is on the board of a charity created by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
  
  
• McConnell "might have kept in mind his wife’s membership on boards of a couple of organizations that aren’t enamored of coal before he based his case against Alison Lundergan Grimes on her association with some who also don’t love coal," writes Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News Service. McConnell now must "defend his own association through his wife’s involvement on the boards of Bloomberg Philanthropies and Wells Fargo." Meanwhile, Grimes's allies in the legislature "squirm as the Kentucky Coal Association and its president, Bill Bissett, come to McConnell’s defense time and again. After years of kowtowing to King Coal, no matter how outrageous some of its excesses, they clearly have no leverage over KCA, which supposedly doesn’t endorse candidates — but clearly supports McConnell over Grimes."
• McConnell introduced legislation that addresses infants born on opiates and maternal addiction, a problem that is increasing in Kentucky. He said in a press release that the bill would "help identify and disseminate recommendations for preventing and treating maternal addiction so that we can reduce the number of infants born dependent on opiates and other drugs," and "encourage the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to work with states to improve the availability and quality of research data to help them respond more effectively to this public health epidemic."
• Edmund Shelby, editor of The Beattyville Enterprise, wrote a commentary for The Courier-Journal standing by his article in April on McConnell's statements about jobs, a prime focus of attacks by the Grimes and her allies. Shelby had asked McConnell basic questions in a brief interview before a luncheon. When Shelby asked the senator what he was going to do to bring jobs to Lee County, an off-guard McConnell said, "Economic development is a Frankfort issue. That is not my job. It is the primary responsibility of the state Commerce Cabinet." McConnell added that he was fighting the Obama administration's proposed restrictions on coal, and Shelby reported that, too. McConnell claimed Shelby quoted him out of context, but Shelby said the context was very clear: "I firmly believe that Sen. McConnell committed the cardinal sin of all career politicians: He gave an honest answer to a journalist’s question."

Grimes keeps hammering McConnell on jobs remark, but ads don't tell the whole story, fact-checkers say

By Megan Ingros and Al Cross

University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

The defining moment of Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race, as Democratic nominee Alison Lundergan Grimes would have it, was Sen. Mitch McConnell’s April 18 comment to a weekly newspaper in Lee County that bringing jobs there “is not my job.”

The remark has fueled attack ads from Grimes and responses from McConnell, the latest round this month. Several fact checkers have said it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Grimes began the exchanges in early June, with a 60-second radio ad that mainly attacked President Obama’s anti-coal regulations but also mentioned McConnell’s comment to The Beattyville Enterprise.

Politifact, the fact-checking service of the Tampa Bay Times, found the charge “half true,” saying that it had no reason to doubt the newspaper, but noting that “McConnell also told the paper that he has a responsibility to protect jobs, and that some of his work in Congress has led to job creation in Kentucky. In addition, McConnell’s legislative record shows a concern for local employment.”

In early July, national Democrats' Senate Majority PAC released a television attack ad on McConnell in which Kentucky residents say jobs should be a top priority for a senator, and express dismay at McConnell’s remark.

Grimes attacked again on July 22 with a TV ad featuring unemployed coal miner David Stanley, who says: “Mr. McConnell, in the last two years, we’ve lost almost half of our coal jobs in Eastern Kentucky. Why’d you say it’s not your job to bring jobs to Kentucky?” As Grimes and Stanley wait for an answer that never comes, an image of the Beattyville newspaper story appears on the screen. Grimes says job growth will be her top priority if elected.

Kentucky Coal Association President Bill Bissett defended McConnell, telling the Lexington Herald-Leader that it was “unfair and untrue” to blame him for the loss of those jobs.

Nevertheless, McConnell released an ad one day later, saying he “saved” a Louisville company with a bill he got passed in 2012 “That law imposes duties on imported foreign products that receive subsidies from communist governments,” reports Louisville’s WDRB-TV.  Joe Arnold of Louisville's WHAS-TV reported, “Our check of the legislative record confirms the ad is accurate.”

Arnold said of Grimes’s ad, “The question itself is questionable,” because she extends the remark to apply to jobs in Kentucky, not Lee County, and for the same reasons Politifact judged the radio ad to be half-true.

Grimes responded with a statement claiming that “Under McConnell, Kentucky has lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs, while he has spent years supporting tax breaks that encourage companies to ship good Kentucky overseas.” The campaign also said McConnell had not stood up to China’s currency manipulations, and it issued a web ad suggesting that McConnell cared more about creating jobs in China than in the U.S.

Beattyville Enterprise Editor Edmund Shelby stood by his article in a statement on June 24: “There is no way that was taken out of context and his campaign’s claim that it was lost in translation is ridiculous because we were both speaking in English. He committed the cardinal sin of any career politician: He gave a straight answer to a straight question.”

The entire story in The Beattyville Enterprise

McConnell has said Shelby quoted him out of context. The immediate context, as Shelby wrote it, was: “McConnell was asked by The Beattyville Enterprise what he was going to do to bring jobs to Lee County.” He quoted McConnell as replying, “Economic development is a Frankfort issue. That is not my job. it is the primary responsibility of the state Commerce Cabinet,” the former name of the Cabinet for Economic Development.

Shelby asked McConnell about public-works projects, and the senator said he was interested in those, but added, “Most comes from the state, though.” Shelby also wrote, “He did say that he is responsible for protecting jobs by ‘pushing back’ against the Obama administration’s restrictions on the coal industry.” 

The most detailed analysis of the controversy was published Friday, July 25 by FactCheck.org, a service of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. In a 1,700-word story, writer Robert Farley detailed the progression of the controversy and concluded, “McConnell’s statements make clear that he sees job creation as part of his job description.”

July 3 roundup: Grimes gets mostly modest coverage in east; McConnell blames Obama for gridlock

Covering the coverage . . .

• Alison Lundergan Grimes campaigned yesterday in Whitley, Knox and Bell counties. Here's coverage from WYMT-TV in Hazard. The Corbin Times-Tribune, which said it was notified late of the event, published a photo and caption. The Barbourville Mountain Advocate posted a short story and several pictures. No coverage was found in the Middlesboro Daily News.
• Today Grimes stopped in five counties, including Perry, where the Hazard Herald's Amelia Holliday reported on the candidate's talk with a small-business owner and posted several pictures. Other stops were in Clay, Leslie, Knott and Powell counties. Only WYMT and the Lexington Herald-Leader covered Grimes' new emphasis on coal-mine safety (see next post). The TV station's opening line was that Grimes was "trying to distance herself from Washington Democrats," and the Herald-Leader story began by saying Grimes acted "With signs pointing to a potentially rocky road ahead in coal country."
  
  Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/07/03/3321946/grimes-focuses-on-miner-safety.html?sp=/99/322/&ihp=1#storylink=cpy
• The Courier-Journal put Sen. Mitch McConnell on the spot in its story about the impending lack of money in the federal Highway Trust Fund, which has promoted Kentucky to delay several road projects. McConnell spokesman Robert Steurer said his boss “looks forward to the full Senate addressing this important extension once [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid brings the issue to the Senate floor for consideration.”
• McConnell told a gathering of civic groups in Bardstown that President Obama is primarily to blame for gridlock in Washington because “He is not an active, engaged CEO like Reagan was and like Clinton was. And he is going to have to come in a different direction in order to achieve things in the political center.” Randy Patrick's Kentucky Standard story is here.

July 1 roundup: McConnell talks social issues in west, Grimes plans to talk jobs, coal, diversification in east

McConnell goes west, Grimes heads east:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, who has rarely campaigned on abortion, stressed the issue in a meeting with the editorial board of The Paducah Sun. He linked the issue with "Monday's Supreme Court decision that rejected the contraceptives mandate for some Christian corporations" under federal health reform, reporter Carrie Dillard writes. Alison Lundergan Grimes, who supports abortion rights, opposed the ruling.
• Grimes's campaign announced that she will campaign Wednesday and Thursday in eight Appalachian counties, seven of which have coal mines. "Alison will speak with voters about her commitment to strengthening the middle class, protecting Kentucky’s coal industry and making smart investments to diversify our economy for the future," said a news release. She will be in Whitley, Knox and Bell counties Wednesday and in Clay, Leslie, Perry, Knott and Powell counties Thursday. Only Powell has no coal.

June 18 roundup: McConnell offers tax break for child care in home offices; Grimes blasts his record on jobs

After several loads of coal, the focus of the race shifted to jobs:

• McConnell introduced a bill that he said “would fix a flaw in the tax code so that men or women who work from home aren’t prevented from claiming a deduction for a home office if that office includes a baby crib so they can care for their child while working.” He said the bill “would not only help parents save on child care costs, it would help increase their earning potential by incentivizing them to create new income streams from home.” Grimes replied, “While we're glad he changed his mind at the last minute on the need for affordable child care, Kentuckians know that he opposed the Family and Medical Leave Act and voted to slash childcare services in Kentucky. His last ditch legislation doesn't go far enough.” She noted that she has called for tax breaks to businesses that provide on-site child care or help employees find child care.
• McConnell outlined several Republican proposals to help working families, in a speech on the Senate floor. Grimes said McConnell only pretends to care about workers' wages. 
• Grimes visited Accuride's Henderson manufacturing plant Tuesday afternoon," talked about her jobs plan and took several blows at her opponent," reports Kayla Moody of WTVW in Evansville. "Although Grimes’ Western Kentucky visit focused on jobs, she acknowledged the ongoing turmoil in Iraq, making her stance on American involvement clear," against sending troops to Iraq. McConnell "urged the Obama administration to act quickly to assist the besieged Iraqi government, but ... stopped short of saying what U.S. assistance to Baghdad should look like," The Courier-Journal reports.
• The Beattyville Enterprise reports that Grimes is considering its proposal for a debate in the Lee County seat, but McConnell has not replied to the invitation. Grimes campaigned in Beattyville to put more attention on McConnell's comment that it was not his job to bring jobs to the county. He says he was misunderstood. "He did say he has been fighting ... Obama over policies that he said lose jobs for the state, the Enterprise reports.
• President Obama is raising money for a political action committee that has run ads attacking McConnell, WFPL reports. "Kentucky Republicans are hoping to connect Obama's appearance at the fundraiser to ... Grimes, who has tried mightily to keep the president at arm's length. . . . The Grimes campaign isn't taking GOP attempts to link her to the super PAC lightly, noting they have called on McConnell to disavow all outside groups."
• Gov. Steve Beshear slammed McConnell and other critics of federal health reform for "attempting to be for a state program that is no different from Obamacare," Jim Carroll reports for The Courier-Journal. Beshear alluded to McConnell's statement at a May 23 news conference that his criticism was unconnected to the future of Kynect, the state health-insurance exchange funded by the law.
• The Mountain Eagle of Whitesburg published a 784-word roundup about the candidates' battle on coal issues, and was among newspapers using one of the four campaign-supplied color photos of Grimes in the MRM Mining underground mine at McDowell last week.
• McConnell will make "a legislative announcement" at the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce offices in Fort Mitchell Friday "and his office has requested the presence of Covington city leaders," KyForward reports, but the purpose of the visit is unknown.

June 17 roundup: Ad targets Grimes for being mum on coal at Reid event; she issues web video on jobs, coal

Coal continues to dominate news of the race:

• The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition, a committee supporting Sen. Mitch McConnell, started the "first ad lashing Alison Lundergan Grimes’ secretly taped remarks at a fundraiser with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid," buying $575,000 in air and cable time for it, Politico reports. Louisville's WHAS-11 provides the ad, which accuses her of lying because she said she would use the event to advocate Kentucky's coal interests. A tape obtained by Politico showed that she did not; she said she discussed coal issues with Reid while in Washington. Politico reports that the McConnell campaign is planning similar advertising. A Grimes aide told Politico that the group's ads have been flawed: “Same group, same type of ad, still false.”
• Grimes released a 2-minute, 41-second web video highlighting McConnell's statement that it is not his job to bring employment to Lee County and a Republican coal miner saying the statement made him support Grimes; mentioning McConnell's votes against raising the minimum wage; showing a former miner saying McConnell has done nothing for miners; and ending with Grimes saying she would "starkly oppose" those who undermine coal jobs in the state. Watch the video here or below.
  
• Ralph Davis of the Floyd County Times reports on Grimes's visit last week to an underground coal mine (left) and a roundtable discussion in Prestonsburg.
• McConnell chided Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy "for appearing on an HBO comedy talk show while she has refused to meet with his constituents to hear how regulations will harm them," The Hill reports.
• Grimes reached out to veterans. In a statement, she called on McConnell to extend unemployment insurance benefits for veterans and "to make permanent the federal VOW to Hire Heroes Act, which provides businesses a one-time tax credit for every unemployed or disabled veteran they hire."