Leading Ky. political scientist gives views on the race

UPDATE: Here's a video of Voss discussing the race.

Dr. Stephen Voss of the University of Kentucky is perhaps the state's leading political scientist, and the one most quoted in stories on the Senate race. He is the latest poli-sci guy to answer and comment on a series of questions about Senate races from the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank. Here are some excerpts:

"Although Grimes had some success convincing voters that she might be better for the coal industry than McConnell, especially in the mountainous region of Eastern Kentucky, the issue remained tilted toward the Republicans throughout the contest. The sluggish economic recovery also served as a backdrop to the 2014 Kentucky Senate campaign. Kentuckians might be conservative on social and cultural issues, but they do not especially tilt to the right when it comes to domestic economic policy. It's a poor state, and many Kentuckians rely on national social-welfare policies to get by." However, "Turmoil in Syria and Iraq, as well as at the southern U.S. border, helped keep attention directed away from bread-and-butter economic matters."

"Kentucky contains a disproportionately large number of swing voters who were in play for the Senate election. . . . These relatively moderate, if not conservative, voters tend to be registered Democrats but they often side with the Republicans in national elections, and many seem to have no loyalty to either side. . . . The McConnell strategy therefore was simple and straightforward: Do anything and everything to link Grimes to the President. . . . McConnell and Grimes appear to be splitting these swing voters fairly evenly, depending on how they're defined, but Grimes needed a much better share than that to compensate for the conservative tilt of the state's partisans." (Read more)

Issues stories include one on student loan debt

Students in the "Covering the U.S. Senate Race" course in the University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications have continued to write stories about issues in the U.S. Senate race, and some have been published by the Kentucky Kernel, the student newspaper at UK. Tyler Spanyer's story about the issue of student loan debt is here; for stories on coal, immigration and the economy and jobs, click here.

Students cover issues in the Senate race

Students in "Covering the U.S. Senate Race," a special course in the University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications, are covering issues in the race between Sen. Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan Grimes. To read stories on immigration, health care and the economy and jobs, click here.

New ads: McConnell uses activist's undercover videos; Grimes features laid-off Mayfield tire-plant worker

Rounding up developments and comments the day before the debate . . .

• Both major candidates have new television commercials, making some of their toughest attacks yet in attempts to be the lesser of two evils.
• Sen. Mitch McConnell is using conservative activist James O'Keefe's undercover video of some Grimes supporters to argue that she is lying about her support for coal. The ad uses a headline saying the comments in one video came from "Grimes' staff," but University of Kentucky student Anthony Pendleton found no proof of that; The Courier-Journal's Joe Gerth dubbed the comments "speculation."
• Wayne Chambers, who worked at the defunct General Tire plant in Mayfield, says in a Grimes ad that McConnell did nothing to help workers there and "voted three times for tax loopholes that make it easy to ship overseas. Why should we lose our jobs and let Mitch McConnell keep his?" Those tax breaks are for any moving expenses, domestic or foreign, and fact-checkers have said such charges are misleading.
• Lexington Herald-Leader political writer Sam Youngman writes that the candidates "have done a fair job of lowering expectations for how they might perform against each other" in Monday night's KET debate. "McConnell and Grimes traded dueling disasters in the days leading up to Monday's showdown, with McConnell being blasted by Democrats for a "needlessly angry" performance on Kentucky Sports Radio and Grimes going viral as political analysts of all stripes lined up to mock her refusal to say whether she voted for President Barack Obama."
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  Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/10/11/3475921/a-week-of-stumbles-lowers-expectations.html?sp=/99/164/#storylink=cpy
• A federal judge has denied Libertarian Party candidate David Patterson's demand that he be allowed into the debate, and the party says it doesn't have the money to appeal, Adam Beam reports for The Associated Press.
• Sahil Kapur of Talking Points Memo has a short profile of Patterson.
• C-J columnist and UK professor Al Cross looks toward the debate and offers "a rundown of the flim-flam lines to watch for, the facts that counter them, and the questions the senator and his challenger should be answering."
• Gerth rounds up the candidates' positions on five major issues: the economy, coal and the environment, foreign policy, immigration and pay equity.
• Youngman says on WKYT-TV, "Our poll shows Alison Lundergan Grimes surging with conservatives, which is sort of a stretch to wrap your head around." Youngman was interviewed for the station's "Newsmakers" show, which airs again at 10 a.m. on CWKYT.
• Grimes and McConnell attended the Logan County Tobacco and Heritage Festival in Russellville, WBKO-TV of Bowling Green reports; Grimes drew a large crowd to a labor rally in Paducah and noted McConnell's opposition to raising the minimum wage, extending unemployment benefits and allowing refinancing of student loans. At both sites, she was asked about her refusal to say whether she voted for President Obama. She told The Paducah Sun, "I'm the (state's) chief election official, and protecting the sanctity of the ballot box is what I was elected to do by the people of Kentucky. I don't believe it's relevant to this election. Instead of asking who I voted for, we should be talking about what I will be voting for in Washington."
  
• "Alison Lundergan Grimes Is Running the Worst Senate Campaign of the Year," reads The New Republic's headline over Jason Zengerle's story, which starts with the Obama-vote flap. "Grimes’s refusal to say who she voted for is emblematic of her entire campaign, which, for the last 15 months, has been waged in a defensive crouch—evading and obfuscating at every turn," Zengerle writes. "While Grimes may have denied McConnell the ammo to convince Kentuckians to vote against her, she hasn’t given the citizens of the commonwealth many good reasons to vote for her."

Voters say jobs top issue by far; Libertarian's role may be decisive; a 99 percent re-election probability?

Roundups may run twice or more a day from here on out . . .

• The Bluegrass Poll found that 54 percent of registered voters believe that jobs and the economy are the top issue in the race. "Ten percent said health care, 9 percent foreign policy and 9 percent immigration," writes Mike Wynn of The Courier-Journal. "Only 8 percent stressed taxes and spending, while 3 percent said social issues and 2 percent energy." Concerns of the economy were at the top of the list for voters of all ages.
• 

  Less than a month before the election, a new web-based application has been released to help undecided voters find their true match.
  VOTR, released Monday by digital news agency Vocativ, touts similar attributes to the popular matchmaking application Tinder by allowing users to enter information about themselves and see people with similar interests.
  This application is not for dating, though. VOTR uses questions about issues such as abortion, gun control and the decriminalization of marijuana to match you with candidates in all 37 Senate races this fall.
  You then see the candidates' profile with a 'fast fact' and their positions on the issue questions you just answered.
• The Daily Independent of Ashland says in an editorial that in a tightening race, "The role of a third party candidate like Libertarian David Patterson becomes increasingly important." Noting the recent Bluegrass Poll showing Grimes with a 2-point lead over McConnell, with Patterson getting 3 percent and others 1 percent (there are three declared write-in candidates) the paper says, "In a race that is as close as this one is shaping up to be, that 4 percent can be the difference between victory and defeat for the two major-party candidates." The editorial compared the race to the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore: "Long-time consumer advocate Ralph Nader was never considered a major candidate for president in that race, but in Florida, Nader, running as an independent, received just enough votes to tip the results in Florida to Bush." The editorial noted that Kentuckians have already showed sentiment for libertarian views, by electing Rand Paul to the other Senate seat in 2010. "We repeat: David Patterson has no chance of being elected to the U.S. Senate, but in a close race, he still could play a pivotal role in determining the winner of this coveted seat." --Tyler Spanyer
• McConnell’s seat isn’t as safe as it once was, suggests a change the Battle for the Senate Race chart on RealClearPolitics.com. In what had previously been considered a state that leaned towards the Republican incumbent, Kentucky has now been reclassified as a state in which the Senate race is a tossup. The news comes just five days after the new Bluegrass Poll showed Grimes with a 2-point lead. The lead reflects a 6-point swing from the previous Bluegrass Poll in late August. Real Clear Politics includes in its analysis that until there is a confirming poll, the poll should be treated as an outlier, contrary to the recent trend to McConnell. The Chicago-based political news and polling data collective shows McConnell in front of Grimes by 4.2 percentage points based on an average of surveys collected from Aug. 28 to Oct. 2.
• Dana Milbank, a columnist for The Washington Post, reports "Big Data" modelers are predicting Senate elections with mathematical precision, and cites a forecast by the Post’s Election Lab, run by George Washington University professor John Sides that McConnell has a 99 percent chance of winning.
• With the race a short four weeks away, the direct mail pieces being sent to households are flying in. Some are from lobbying groups that can give only $10,000 to a candidate but can spend unlimited sums on independent campaigns for or against candidates. McConnell is touted in pieces from the National Association of Realtors as someone who knows "our nation's economic recovery depends on a strong housing market." The pieces say "a job is created for every two homes sold." Unlike the recent representation of McConnell by the Grimes campaign, the piece says he supports middle-class Americans and will "fight to maintain the home-mortgage-interest tax deduction that middle-class homeowners depend on." The pieces also say McConnell supports the Rural Housing Program, which Kentuckians statewide depend upon for affordable financing. --Paige Hobbs
• The Republican Party of Kentucky has mailed an advertisement criticizing Alison Lundergan Grimes for hiding her "true agenda." Shotgun-style criticisms in the ad, illustrated with suitcases and stickers, include: "She is criss-crossing Kentucky, dodging questions about the issues." The claims that if elected, Grimes will cast her vote for Harry Reid as Senate majority leader, support "Kentucky coal killing liberals," and support the rest of President Obama's agenda.  The ad claims Grimes has held secret meetings with anti-coal liberals. Fund-raisers are typically private events. It also calls a "crooked bus deal" the arrangement between Grimes and her father, Jerry Lundergan, for campaign transportation. The mailer notes says that Grimes was part of the Kentucky delegation to the 2012 Democratic National Convention that nominated President Obama, and publicly supported the president's re-election bid. --Cheyene Miller

Groups say they'll protest Romney, McConnell; Grimes starts TV ad with Bill Clinton; McConnell ad has miner

There's a lot more going on than we have students willing or able to write about it . . .

• Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, is scheduled to attend fund-raising events Thursday in for Sen. Mitch McConnell. The private fundraiser will be held at Donamire Farm on Old Frankfort Pike in Lexington. In an advisory sent to the news media, activists said they would gather to protest outside the fundraiser. According to the advisory, the protesters will be members of People for the American Way, the Kentucky State AFL-CIO, MoveOn.org and CREDO Action. The activists are expected to protest McConnell's support of the wealthy and push for a stronger voice for average citizens.
• Former president Bill Clinton is appearing in a television commercial for Alison Lundergan Grimes, who has campaigned with him twice in Kentucky and is expected to host him again. The 30-second spot shows footage of their campaign stop in Hazard. UPDATE, Oct. 2: John Harris of Politico writes of Clinton and his wife, "The Clinton Brand of 2014 is missing three key elements that vaulted Bill Clinton to power in 1992. First was new ideas. Second was an authentic populist connection. Third was the idea of generational change."
• McConnell is running an 30-second TV ad featuring Chris Sexton of Letcher County, who says he "got laid off because of the war on coal" and retrained as an emergency medical technician in a program McConnell helped fund. The McConnell campaign has not responded to a requst for documentation of Sexton's claim.
• The National Rifle Association, which started a TV ad last week calling for defeat of Grimes, has added one calling for McConnell's election, as well as a 60-second radio commercial that alleges Grimes supports the "gun control agenda" of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The only gun measure Grimes says she favors is background checks for gun purchasers at gun shows.

Where the race stands, six weeks before the election

By Anthony Pendleton and Megan Ingros

University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Information for this story was also contributed by Paige Hobbs, Cheyene Miller and Tyler Spanyer.

In less than two months, Kentucky voters will head to the polls to vote in the election for the U.S. Senate. Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell is facing off against national Democratic newcomer Alison Lundergan Grimes.

This is arguably the most important and most-watched race in the nation. McConnell, 72, is the Senate minority leader, meaning he’s the top official of the party that has fewer members in the Senate. He is expected to become majority leader if the GOP wins enough seats to take control of the chamber.

Grimes, 35, would be Kentucky’s first female senator, and the state’s first Democratic senator since 1999. She is Kentucky's secretary of state – a position she won in 2011, her first elected public office.

             As the state’s chief election officer, Grimes got the legislature to approve changes to help overseas military voting, but the new law does not allow soldiers to vote electronically, as she wanted. Grimes also started a program that allows victims of domestic violence and sexual assault to "remove their addresses from public voter registration records in an attempt to stay safe from their abusers," as described by the Lexington Herald-Leader.

             McConnell says his leadership job puts him in the middle of every big decision in Washington, and that he will be even more powerful, as majority leader, if Republicans take control of the Senate. Grimes wants McConnell’s long history in Washington to be viewed as a liability, by painting him as an architect of Washington gridlock.  

             Over the course of his nearly 30-year Senate career, McConnell is best known nationally for his fights against limits on campaign contributions and spending. In a secretly recorded talk in June, he said the 2001 passage of the McCain-Feingold law limiting donations to political parties was “the worst day of my political life.”

             McConnell’s big issue in this race has been coal, blaming Environmental Protection Agency regulations for the loss of mining jobs in Eastern Kentucky. Disinterested observers have noted other factors, especially cheap natural gas that has displaced coal as an electric-generating fuel.

             McConnell has identified Grimes with President Obama, who is unpopular in Kentucky, based largely on her statement during her 2011 campaign that she supported the national Democratic platform. That seems to be working for him, as he has built leads in coal-bearing Eastern and Western Kentucky.

Grimes has replied with an ad saying “I’m not Barack Obama. I disagree with him on guns, coal and the EPA.” She also talks about coal miners’ safety and health, and her campaign has called McConnell’s record on those issues “deplorable.”

             The underlying issue is jobs. Kentucky’s unemployment rate remains higher than the rest of the country, and both candidates promise to promote job growth in the state.

Grimes has tried to make much of McConnell’s remark, when asked in Beattyville what he would do to bring jobs to Lee County, that “Economic development is a Frankfort issue. That is not my job.” McConnell has said he was in Beattyville to discuss jobs, and did so in a speech after the reporter left.

Grimes has focused on economic issues such as equal pay for women -- but has been unable to keep a clear lead among female voters – and raising the minimum wage to $10.10 per hour over three years, from $7.25.

McConnell, citing a report from the Congressional Budget Office, has said raising the wage to that level would cost half a million jobs, but has also said there might be circumstances in which it could be raised, after the economy improves more.

McConnell wants to repeal the federal health-care reform law while Grimes wants to delay its coverage mandate and make other changes. She says McConnell’s approach would risk the coverage of 521,000 people who have obtained it through the state exchange established under the law.

On immigration, Grimes supports the bipartisan, comprehensive reform bill that passed the Senate and would create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. McConnell has said only legal residency is needed to attract needed workers, and immigration reform should be done through separate bills after the border is secure.

Grimes and McConnell have had one joint question-and-answer session, before directors of the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation. KET will host a debate between them Oct. 13. The debate will not include Libertarian David Patterson, a 43 year-old Harrodsburg police officer who didn’t get his name on the ballot until August.

In new TV ads, Grimes touts experience, McConnell asks why she backed Obama after he targeted coal

Alison Lundergan Grimes started a new television commercial today, the first in which she mentions her experience as secretary of state, a post to which she was elected in 2011. She uses that as evidence that she can help produce jobs, which she has tried to make the centerpiece of her campaign. The office's main duties are keeping business records and overseeing elections; an ad for Sen. Mitch McConnell has questioned her lack of experience.

In the 30-second spot, in which she speaks throughout, Grimes notes "landmark legislation" she worked to pass "to guarantee that military votes could be counted, bringing Republicans and Democrats together." The ad does not mention that major provision she proposed, to allow electronic absentee voting by service members, was rejected by the Republican-controlled state Senate.

She also mentions her work as "a volunteer lawyer for victims of domestic violence. I know how to fight for those with no voice, and win." Her closing has the ad's only attack line: "Washington's broken, and Kentucky needs a new senator."

Later today, Sen. Mitch McConnell started a new ad, using some of the same themes as earlier ads and those from the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition, a group funded by unknown donors. It notes news-media criticism of some of Grimes's earlier ads, implying that they all fell short of the truth; and asks "Why was she a delegate for Obama's re-election after he vowed to bankrupt Kentucky's coal industry?" He did not make such a specific pledge, but said he wanted to block construction of new coal-fired power plants by imposing heavy fees on their greenhouse-gas emissions. The ad closes with what has been McConnell's campaign motto since primary-election night: "Obama needs Grimes, but Kentucky needs Mitch McConnell." Another McConnell ad that started this week features sound clips from a McConnell stump speech about coal.

Magazine's audio, transcript: McConnell disses wage-floor boost, extra help for student debtors, jobless

A recording of Sen. Mitch McConnell, apparently done in secret, has him disparaging minimum-wage increases, extended unemployment benefits and relief for student-loan debtors, according to The Nation, a liberal magazine that published the barely audible recording and a transcript today.

After discussing his recently revealed plan to attach policy riders to funding bills, to force President Obama to veto them and/or negotiate, McConnell said, according to the transcript:

"We’re not going to be debating all these gosh-darn proposals. That’s all we do in the Senate, is vote on things like raising the minimum wage (inaudible) – cost the country 500,000 new jobs; extending unemployment – that’s a great message for retirees; uh, the student loan package the other day, that’s just going to make things worse, uh. These people believe in all the wrong things."

McConnell was answering questions after speaking June 15 at a California "donor summit" held by Charles and David Koch, brothers who have been two of the leading financiers of conservative causes and Republican campaigns in recent years.

"The main thrust of McConnell’s remarks to the Koch conference were about his pet issue, campaign finance, which he regards as a matter of free speech," Lauren Windsor reports for The Nation. According to the magazine, he said "the worst day of my political life" was when President George W. Bush signed the McCain-Feingold law, "the bill that banned soft money and unlimited donations to party committees," Windsor writes.

"McConnell promised his party’s rich backers that he stands with them, no matter the cost to Kentuckians and this nation," the Alison Lundergan Grimes campaign said in a press release.

The McConnell campaign didn't dispute the transcript, but cast the senator's remarks as no different from his stump speeches and a forthright defense of the coal industry that it said Grimes has been too timid to defend: "Earlier this summer Grimes failed to utter a word of support after promising Kentuckians she would defend Kentucky coal at a Harry Reid fundraiser and lord [sic] knows what she said to Tom Steyer and anti-coal billionaires when she attended their conference in Chicago."

New York magazine and New York Times publish long stories about the race and McConnell

Two major examinations of the race were published online today. They are worth your time, but we only have time and space for a couple of teasers:

• Jonathan Martin, the national political correspondent for The New York Times, has a long story about Sen. Mitch McConnell in the newspaper's magazine, which will be in the print edition Sunday. His interview with Grimes doesn't appear until the last two paragraphs:

“I think that he is continuing to show just how out of touch he is with the state — the days of being able to bully your way and to buy your way back to Washington, D.C., are over,” she said, sticking to her talking points, as she did on most every question I posed. When I asked Grimes if she thought McConnell’s insider-outsider tactic was working — despite the fact that he had been in the Senate for 30 years and she was a genuine newcomer — she replied, “That is a campaign tactic that he is trying to use, to claim somehow that he’s the victim.” In the end, however, it seemed as though McConnell had found a way to make the race about Obama rather than himself. Somehow, he had yet again become the outsider. Maybe the guy still had it.

The pivot point in the long story by Chris Smith of New York magazine is an interview with Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee:

Is this race about Mitch McConnell and national ideology and national partisanship, or is it about Kentucky?” Cecil says. “In the polling, voters side with Democrats on pocketbook issues. We have to make sure they go into the voting booth with that being the first thing on their minds. If they do, I think Alison will win. McConnell only wants to talk about Barack Obama. This is going to be a two-point race in either direction. And it’s going to be close all the way to the end.”

McConnell agrees to KET debate (no Patterson), gets help from NRA mailer; editor defends jobs quote

Finally, a real debate has been scheduled; and there's more news and commentary:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell has accepted KET’s invitation to debate Alison Lundergan Grimes Oct. 13, three weeks before the election and about six weeks after Labor Day, when he wanted to end a series of debates he proposed. "Host Bill Goodman will moderate the debate and ask questions, and viewers will be allowed to call in with their questions, said Tim Bischoff, a spokesman for the state's educational television network," reports Joseph Gerth of The Courier-Journal. "Josh Holmes, an adviser to McConnell, said that the campaign is in discussions about other potential debates but has nothing to announce at this time." Grimes campaign manager Jonathan Hurst said their campaign hopes for "several more debates."
• Bischoff said Libertarian Party candidate David Patterson did not meet the criteria that the network said must be met by Aug. 15, including acceptance of at least $100,000 in campaign contributions and getting at least 10 percent support in an independent, professional poll.
• The National Rifle Association has sent a mailer to Kentucky residents that says,"McConnell will stop the Obama/Bloomberg Gun Control agenda . . . the biggest threat to your Second Amendment rights in Obama's final years in office. ' of President Obama and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg." Kevin Willis of WKYU-FM in Bowling Green notes that the mailer was sent shortly after it was revealed that McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, is on the board of a charity created by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
  
  
• McConnell "might have kept in mind his wife’s membership on boards of a couple of organizations that aren’t enamored of coal before he based his case against Alison Lundergan Grimes on her association with some who also don’t love coal," writes Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News Service. McConnell now must "defend his own association through his wife’s involvement on the boards of Bloomberg Philanthropies and Wells Fargo." Meanwhile, Grimes's allies in the legislature "squirm as the Kentucky Coal Association and its president, Bill Bissett, come to McConnell’s defense time and again. After years of kowtowing to King Coal, no matter how outrageous some of its excesses, they clearly have no leverage over KCA, which supposedly doesn’t endorse candidates — but clearly supports McConnell over Grimes."
• McConnell introduced legislation that addresses infants born on opiates and maternal addiction, a problem that is increasing in Kentucky. He said in a press release that the bill would "help identify and disseminate recommendations for preventing and treating maternal addiction so that we can reduce the number of infants born dependent on opiates and other drugs," and "encourage the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to work with states to improve the availability and quality of research data to help them respond more effectively to this public health epidemic."
• Edmund Shelby, editor of The Beattyville Enterprise, wrote a commentary for The Courier-Journal standing by his article in April on McConnell's statements about jobs, a prime focus of attacks by the Grimes and her allies. Shelby had asked McConnell basic questions in a brief interview before a luncheon. When Shelby asked the senator what he was going to do to bring jobs to Lee County, an off-guard McConnell said, "Economic development is a Frankfort issue. That is not my job. It is the primary responsibility of the state Commerce Cabinet." McConnell added that he was fighting the Obama administration's proposed restrictions on coal, and Shelby reported that, too. McConnell claimed Shelby quoted him out of context, but Shelby said the context was very clear: "I firmly believe that Sen. McConnell committed the cardinal sin of all career politicians: He gave an honest answer to a journalist’s question."

McConnell calls Grimes ad an attack on Chao; could set up attack on Lundergan; camps talk debates

The weekend conversation is mainly about Alison Lundergan Grimes's new TV spot:

• Grimes "has set aside her folksy, light-hearted television ad series 'Questions for Mitch' in favor of a traditional attack ad, as recent polls show her losing ground in a tight race with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell," writes Sam Youngman of the Lexington Herald-Leader. "McConnell's campaign labeled the ad an attack on the senator's wife, former U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, although the ad never makes a direct reference to Chao. Because the ad mentions McConnell's personal wealth, the majority of which was inherited from Chao's family, the McConnell campaign countered that it represented another attack on Chao." The ad says McConnell has become a multi-millionaire in public office; Youngman notes, "The bulk of McConnell's wealth comes from a gift Chao's father, an immigrant-turned-shipping-magnate, gave the couple and an inheritance she received after her mother died in 2007."
• The ad "does try to infer that there might be some misbehavior or some misuse of his position," Kentucky Gazette Editor Laura Cullen Glasscock said on KET's "Comment on Kentucky" Friday night. (She meant "imply," not "infer," which is what viewers may do.) Panelist Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News said, "The underlying thing they want to get across is that he has become a creature of Washington and has lost touch with hard-working, blue-collar Kentuckians." Glasscock added, " . . . that he's not one of us, doesn't represent the citizen any more."
• Ellis said the McConnell campaign's response is another indication that it may make an issue of Grimes's father, former state Democratic chair Jerry Lundergan. He noted that McConnell told Lana Bellamy of CHNI's Ashland Daily Independent, "If Jerry Lundergan were my father I'd be careful about bringing family into this." Noting Lundergan's 1987 conviction, for doing business with the state while a state legislator, which was overturned because it was later ruled a misdemeanor and the statute of limitations had run, Ellis said, "I think there's a very good chance were going to see that, then Grimes could respond at Chao." WHAS-TV's Joe Arnold noted that such attacks could be done by allied groups that are legally required to act independently of the campaigns.
• Also on "Comment," Arnold reported that the McConnell and Grimes campaigns have had their first "face to face meeting" to discuss debates. "Comment" airs again at 12:30 p.m. ET Sunday, and Monday on KET KY at 8 a.m. and 6:30 p.m. ET.

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  Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/15/3381856/alison-lundergan-grimes-shifts.html?sp=/99/322/&ihp=1#storylink=cpy

Roundup: Post analyst says GOP likelier to gain Senate, but McConnell race Dems' top pickup chance

Rounding up the weekend coverage and commentary, and more recent items:

• Mitch McConnell's main positive argument for his re-election, that he would become Senate majority leader, gets a boost from Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post, who writes that a Republican takeover is now "a better than 50-50 proposition." But he also writes that the Kentucky race, not an open seat in Georgia, "seems the better opportunity" for Democrats to take a Republican seat, given "McConnell’s middling poll numbers and the able campaign being run by state Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Polling gives McConnell a slight edge, but even his most ardent supporters acknowledge that his vote ceiling is somewhere between 51 and 52 percent." But he said a McConnell loss "looks possible — but not probable — at the moment."
• In his fortnightly column in The Courier-Journal, Al Cross (publisher of this blog) analyzes the week that began with the Fancy Farm Picnic, saying "Grimes needed a win at Fancy Farm, and she got it;" looks at her ad on women's issues and McConnell's response ad, featuring his wife, Elaine Chao; notes stories that could turn the race more personal; and ends with the candidates' battle for the East Kentucky Coal Field, where the percentage of uninsured people has dropped to record low levels but "Grimes still seems scared to come close to anything associated with Obama, much less Obamacare."
• The candidates' Eastern Kentucky crowds looked identical but had sharply divergent views, writes Ronnie Ellis of CNHI News Service: Grimes supporters "see an American society built by the middle class, a middle class they believe should always be expanding. But they see that dream faltering as the rules now seem stacked against them by rich and malevolent powers which get richer and richer at the expense of hard-working families whose incomes are shrinking. They see the coal economy by which many escaped poverty, and many more hope to, crumbling beneath them and their region." McConnell backers "are just as alarmed by the demise of coal in Eastern Kentucky. . . . To these folks, outside forces, alien, socialist forces, people who don’t like us, are malevolently working to destroy our way of life."
• Catching up with the weekly papers: The Record of Leitchfield reported last week that Grimes, on her way to Fancy Farm, stopped at Rough River Dam State Resort Park and got a little rough, telling supporters she was wearing "butt-kicking boots—the boots I’m gonna wear to kick Mitch McConnell’s butt out of his Senate seat."

Rolling roundup: As attention turns west, McConnell has a 60-second TV ad about an issue in the region

As the candidates head toward Fancy Farm, there's a new ad about West Kentucky:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell started a new one-minute TV ad today, touting his "Freedom to Fish Act" that kept the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers from banning fishing for safety reasons on the Tennessee River just below Kentucky Dam and the Cumberland River just below Barkley Dam. Most folks heading to the political speaking at the Fancy Farm Picnic will cross these waters on Interstate 24.
  
• "The Morning Line" from PBS NewsHour Politics moves the race down in its list of the 10 races most likely to decide control of the Senate, to No. 8 from No. 6: "This one drops a couple spots because of movement in other races and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell looking stronger," PBS Political Director Domenico Montanaro and staff write, noting this month's Bluegrass Poll.
• University of Kentucky officials will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. Friday to announce a statewide media partnership as part of UK student organizations' proposal to host a senatorial debate on campus. UPDATE, Aug. 1: The originating station would be Lexington's WKYT-TV; other TV stations in the hookup would be WLKY, Louisville; WLWT, Cincinnati; WYMT, Hazard; WSAZ, Charleston-Huntington, W. Va., WBKO, Bowling Green; WPSD, Paducah; and WFIE in Evansville, Ind.

McConnell to think tank: GOP must focus on helping middle class, not Wall Street or entrepreneurs

Sen. Mitch McConnell said in a keynote speech to a group of Republicans looking for ideas a few weeks ago "that the time had come for the GOP to stop being the handmaiden to Wall Street and instead attend to the anxieties of the middle class," Sam Tanenhaus reports in The New York Times Magazine.

The first quote in the story, and the only one from McConnell, has him "referring to the visionary hero of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, that sacred text of the libertarian right," Tanenhaus reports. He quotes McConnell as saying, “Our average voter is not John Galt. . . . Hymns to entrepreneurialism are, as a practical matter, largely irrelevant.”

The complete quote, according to a sponsor's transcript, was that Republicans in Washington, "in our rush to defend the American entrepreneur from daily depredations of an administration that seems to view any profit-making enterprise with deep suspicion, have often lost sight of the fact that our average voter is not John Galt. It’s a good impulse, to be sure. But for most Americans, whose daily concerns revolve around aging parents, long commutes, shrinking budgets, and obscenely high tuition bills, these hymns to entrepreneurialism are, as a practical matter, largely irrelevant. And the audience for them is probably a lot smaller than we think. So I do think we’d do well as a party to get down to the basics."

McConnell's speech was to a group of "reform conservatives," who he said are "animated in large part by a desire to prove that at least one party in Washington remains determined to change that and to show in the process that today’s Republican Party has something to offer those Americans beyond a mere rejection of what the other side is selling."

The senator touted three proposals he is sponsoring, including one to "allow working mothers to enter into a voluntary agreement with their employer whereby they would be able bank overtime compensation in the form of time-off rather than more pay." The other two measures he mentioned are longtime Republican favorites: a bill to boost charter schools and a national "right to work" law that would prohibit union contracts that require workers to join a union or pay dues.

In a more interesting part of the speech, McConnell gave his analysis of the national dialectic of the last 100-plus years: "As a coalition party, today’s Democrats simply don’t have room to innovate or to keep pace with the times. That’s why they seem to have been pushing the same ideas for more than a century now. They’re captive to a handful of interest groups that just won’t allow them to think big or innovatively. Occasionally, they’ll try to make a virtue of necessity by casting their commitment to a century-old agenda as a sign of their doggedness, but the truth is they’re simply trapped. It’s been left to us to fill the gaps. In a recent interview with Stephen Colbert, George Will noted that liking things that are old doesn’t make you a conservative; it makes you a liberal. His point wasn’t to suggest that conservatives have given up on preserving institutions that are working as they should. It was to highlight how often liberals won’t even discuss – won’t even discuss – updating or reforming those that aren’t."

McConnell is seeking not only re-election, but a Republican majority that would promote him from minority to majority leader. He devoted much of his speech to criticizing the way Majority Leader Harry Reid runs the Senate and how he would run it differently, allowing more votes on amendments, reinvigorating the committees and creating "a greater level of comity" among senators. In the question-and-answer session, he wouldn't say whether a Republican majority would reverse the rule change that prevented GOP filibusters of President Obama's appointments (except those to the Supreme Court).

The 3,200-word speech was given May 22 at the American Enterprise Institute, two days after McConnell won renomination in Kentucky's primary election. It was videostreamed live at the time, but we were just getting started on this project, so we missed it. Here's a transcript of McConnell's appearance. For a transcript of the entire event and more information about it, click here.

July 1 roundup: McConnell talks social issues in west, Grimes plans to talk jobs, coal, diversification in east

McConnell goes west, Grimes heads east:

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, who has rarely campaigned on abortion, stressed the issue in a meeting with the editorial board of The Paducah Sun. He linked the issue with "Monday's Supreme Court decision that rejected the contraceptives mandate for some Christian corporations" under federal health reform, reporter Carrie Dillard writes. Alison Lundergan Grimes, who supports abortion rights, opposed the ruling.
• Grimes's campaign announced that she will campaign Wednesday and Thursday in eight Appalachian counties, seven of which have coal mines. "Alison will speak with voters about her commitment to strengthening the middle class, protecting Kentucky’s coal industry and making smart investments to diversify our economy for the future," said a news release. She will be in Whitley, Knox and Bell counties Wednesday and in Clay, Leslie, Perry, Knott and Powell counties Thursday. Only Powell has no coal.

June 18 roundup: McConnell offers tax break for child care in home offices; Grimes blasts his record on jobs

After several loads of coal, the focus of the race shifted to jobs:

• McConnell introduced a bill that he said “would fix a flaw in the tax code so that men or women who work from home aren’t prevented from claiming a deduction for a home office if that office includes a baby crib so they can care for their child while working.” He said the bill “would not only help parents save on child care costs, it would help increase their earning potential by incentivizing them to create new income streams from home.” Grimes replied, “While we're glad he changed his mind at the last minute on the need for affordable child care, Kentuckians know that he opposed the Family and Medical Leave Act and voted to slash childcare services in Kentucky. His last ditch legislation doesn't go far enough.” She noted that she has called for tax breaks to businesses that provide on-site child care or help employees find child care.
• McConnell outlined several Republican proposals to help working families, in a speech on the Senate floor. Grimes said McConnell only pretends to care about workers' wages. 
• Grimes visited Accuride's Henderson manufacturing plant Tuesday afternoon," talked about her jobs plan and took several blows at her opponent," reports Kayla Moody of WTVW in Evansville. "Although Grimes’ Western Kentucky visit focused on jobs, she acknowledged the ongoing turmoil in Iraq, making her stance on American involvement clear," against sending troops to Iraq. McConnell "urged the Obama administration to act quickly to assist the besieged Iraqi government, but ... stopped short of saying what U.S. assistance to Baghdad should look like," The Courier-Journal reports.
• The Beattyville Enterprise reports that Grimes is considering its proposal for a debate in the Lee County seat, but McConnell has not replied to the invitation. Grimes campaigned in Beattyville to put more attention on McConnell's comment that it was not his job to bring jobs to the county. He says he was misunderstood. "He did say he has been fighting ... Obama over policies that he said lose jobs for the state, the Enterprise reports.
• President Obama is raising money for a political action committee that has run ads attacking McConnell, WFPL reports. "Kentucky Republicans are hoping to connect Obama's appearance at the fundraiser to ... Grimes, who has tried mightily to keep the president at arm's length. . . . The Grimes campaign isn't taking GOP attempts to link her to the super PAC lightly, noting they have called on McConnell to disavow all outside groups."
• Gov. Steve Beshear slammed McConnell and other critics of federal health reform for "attempting to be for a state program that is no different from Obamacare," Jim Carroll reports for The Courier-Journal. Beshear alluded to McConnell's statement at a May 23 news conference that his criticism was unconnected to the future of Kynect, the state health-insurance exchange funded by the law.
• The Mountain Eagle of Whitesburg published a 784-word roundup about the candidates' battle on coal issues, and was among newspapers using one of the four campaign-supplied color photos of Grimes in the MRM Mining underground mine at McDowell last week.
• McConnell will make "a legislative announcement" at the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce offices in Fort Mitchell Friday "and his office has requested the presence of Covington city leaders," KyForward reports, but the purpose of the visit is unknown.

June 17 roundup: Ad targets Grimes for being mum on coal at Reid event; she issues web video on jobs, coal

Coal continues to dominate news of the race:

• The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition, a committee supporting Sen. Mitch McConnell, started the "first ad lashing Alison Lundergan Grimes’ secretly taped remarks at a fundraiser with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid," buying $575,000 in air and cable time for it, Politico reports. Louisville's WHAS-11 provides the ad, which accuses her of lying because she said she would use the event to advocate Kentucky's coal interests. A tape obtained by Politico showed that she did not; she said she discussed coal issues with Reid while in Washington. Politico reports that the McConnell campaign is planning similar advertising. A Grimes aide told Politico that the group's ads have been flawed: “Same group, same type of ad, still false.”
• Grimes released a 2-minute, 41-second web video highlighting McConnell's statement that it is not his job to bring employment to Lee County and a Republican coal miner saying the statement made him support Grimes; mentioning McConnell's votes against raising the minimum wage; showing a former miner saying McConnell has done nothing for miners; and ending with Grimes saying she would "starkly oppose" those who undermine coal jobs in the state. Watch the video here or below.
  
• Ralph Davis of the Floyd County Times reports on Grimes's visit last week to an underground coal mine (left) and a roundtable discussion in Prestonsburg.
• McConnell chided Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy "for appearing on an HBO comedy talk show while she has refused to meet with his constituents to hear how regulations will harm them," The Hill reports.
• Grimes reached out to veterans. In a statement, she called on McConnell to extend unemployment insurance benefits for veterans and "to make permanent the federal VOW to Hire Heroes Act, which provides businesses a one-time tax credit for every unemployed or disabled veteran they hire."