Grimes pollster, using his own model of the likely electorate, says she leads by 1 percentage point

By Al Cross
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Faced with a string of public polls that showed her losing ground to Sen. Mitch McConnell, Alison Lundergan Grimes had her pollster announce an internal survey Thursday that showed her ahead by one percentage point, 43 to 42, with 15 percent undecided.

Libertarian David Patterson was not included in the survey, which pollster Mark Mellman said was conducted Sept, 4-7 among a random sample of 800 drawn from a file of registered voters and then modeled to mimic what Mellman believes will be the likely electorate on Nov. 4.

Pollster Mark Mellman

Public-opinion polls typically use random dialing to a set of known telephone numbers, but Mellman, a leading Democratic pollster, told reporters on a conference call that he no longer uses such sampling. He said the error margin of his poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points

In an email, Mellman said the modeling of his sample was based primarily on voting history, with some based on answers to questioned that measured the likelihood of voting and "a tiny bit" on demographic characteristics that can indicate likewise.

He said in the email that the anticipated turnout, based on the model, is "in line with" the 2010 Senate election, in which turnout was just under 50 percent.

Asked on the conference call how Grimes was doing among women voters, Mellman said he didn't want to discuss specific numbers, "but Alison is doing specifically better among women than among men." That being no surprise, he was asked in an email how she and McConnell stood among women. "we are winning women and he is ahead among men," Mellman replied.

Mellman said that among voters who know both candidates, Grimes leads 50 percent to 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

McConnell recently posted big leads in Eastern and Western Kentucky. Asked about regional disparities, Mellman said, "That’s sort of a strategic level of information that I think is not fruitful for us to get into here." Earlier, he said, "We don't give out all our results. We give out our good results."

Shortly after the call, McConnell's campaign issued a press release noting that nine consecutive polls has shown the Senate Republican leader ahead, the most recent one taken during the same Sept. 4-7 period by Magellan Strategies. It showed McConnell leading by 8 points, the same margin he posted in an NBC News poll taken Sept 2-4.

Group that favors taxpayer-funded campaigns starts running one-minute TV ad against McConnell

Rolling roundup for Tuesday, Sept. 9:

• In response to Alison Lundergan Grimes's TV ad saying he should be fired for missing the vast majority of his Senate committee meetings, Sen. Mitch McConnell today started an ad saying he has the power to appoint Senate committee members, "making sure Kentucky's voice is heard."
• A super PAC called Every Voice Action, which favors public financing of state and federal campaigns, to combat corruption, says it will spend at least $1 million on a "Big Money Mitch" campaign with a 60-second ad about McConnell's statement that "the worst day of my political life" was when President George W. Bush signed into law the McCain-Feingold law, "a bipartisan bill designed to rein in the power of large contributors."
• In a speech at Hopkinsville, Grimes criticized McConnell for “enacting the arbitrary and really mindless sequester cuts” that could cause a further reduction in military spending, affecting nearby Fort Campbell, Steve Breen reports for the Kentucky New Era. Asked what she would do about sequestration, which is designed to reduce the federal budget deficit, Grimes said, “We need to balance the budget the right way by cutting waste, fraud and abuse, spending smarter and making sure that we end the loopholes for the millionaires and billionaires and the tax breaks that Mitch McConnell has created.”
• McConnell is back in Washington, where the Senate is in session, probably for the rest of September. Grimes started a web ad accusing McConnell of dodging questions.
• In a tweet, New York Times national political correspondent Jonathan Martin asks, "If Grimes doesn't start moving #s by end of month, esp in E KY, does she start using Kynect (AKA: ACA)?" Al Cross, editor of this blog, replied, "I think so, and some in her camp have wanted to do that already," adding that pro-Obamacare ads by Democrats in Senate races in Arkansas and West Virginia could "show the way." Kynect is the state health-insurance marketplace created under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Race is latest battle in 'long running Mafia war' between parties in Senate, Post reporter writes

Sen. Mitch McConnell's fight for re-election is part of his continuing fight with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, which began when Republicans targeted then-majority leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota in 2004, Paul Kane reports for The Washington Post.

"The targeting of Senate party leaders has come to resemble a long-running Mafia war in which rival families are constantly trying to take out the other’s don," Kane writes. "McConnell’s 2014 race marks the fourth time in the past six elections in which a Senate leader is battling for survival, and Reid would make it five elections out of seven should he run again."

The battle has an impact on Senate business, Kane notes: "In June and July, the legislative agenda ground to a halt in the Senate as McConnell repeatedly tried to attach a pro-coal amendment to any bill that moved, forcing Reid to not move any bills that would force vulnerable Democrats from casting a tough vote. Reid is also determined to deny McConnell any victory that would help his reelection effort."

New York Times analyst sees in polls and coal a clear advantage for McConnell

Sen. Mitch McConnell has established "a clear advantage" in his re-election bid, Nate Cohn of The New York Times column The Upshot writes today: "If there is any plausibly competitive state where we have now have a clear sense of a Senate race, it is Kentucky. A recent set of diverse and high-quality nonpartisan polls and the underlying fundamentals are all in alignment: Mr. McConnell has a clear advantage."

The column's forecasting model gives McConnell a 93 percent chance of winning. "That’s partly because candidates usually win with such a clear lead at this stage, but it’s also because the underlying fundamentals point to a McConnell victory," Cohn writes. "A McConnell defeat would have been all but unprecedented: No incumbent senator who represents the party opposed to the White House has ever lost re-election in a state that leans as strongly against the incumbent president’s party as Kentucky does."

The other big reason McConnell has an advantage, Cohn says, is coal. "The inexorable decline of Democratic standing in coal country has been driven by the collapse of the national Democratic Party in this region, where environmental regulations on coal-fired power plants are deeply unpopular, as are Democratic positions on cultural issues," Cohn writes. "The traditional and narrow Democratic route to victory in Kentucky might not exist anymore, at least for a candidate seeking federal office. Ms. Grimes would need to fare better in the rest of Kentucky than any federal candidate since 1976. Unlike in other states, like Virginia or Pennsylvania, there aren’t many places in Kentucky where Democrats are making gains to counter their losses. In fact, Democrats have generally suffered losses across other parts of the state, including another stretch of coal country in Western Kentucky and the Jackson Purchase."

Latest poll: McConnell 47, Grimes 39, Patterson 8; turnout model more likely than in other recent polls

Sen. Mitch McConnell has opened up his first clear lead over Alison Lundergan Grimes, according to a poll conducted for NBC News. McConnell had 47 percent among likely voters while Grimes had 39 percent and Libertarian David Patterson 8 percent. Eight percent were undecided. The last Kentucky poll for NBC, in May, had McConnell leading 46-45.

The latest poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, which applies to each number, so McConnell has a clear lead for the first time. As for Grimes, it's "not looking very good for her," new "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd said as he revealed the numbers. Some results are at http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-poll-gop-senate-candidates-open-leads-key-states-n196956.

NBC headline shows McConnell giving his usual arrival thumbs-up

The survey continued a trend set by recent polls, but had a new piece of bad news for Grimes: The survey's sample of self-described likely voters was much closer to the likely turnout in the race. Among registered voters in the poll, 58 percent said they were likely to vote. Other recent polls in the race have had much higher percentages.

Typically, Democratic turnout falls off in such midterm elections, but the poll found a clear preference for Republicans even among registered voters when the highly unpopular president was included: 44 percent said they would like to see "a Republican majority in both the House and Senate as a check on President Obama in his final two years," while 35 percent preferred "more Democrats in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate to send a message to Republicans that they need to work with President Obama not against him." Fourteen percent said it doesn’t matter as long as a lot of incumbents from both parties are thrown out of office. The error margin for the sample of registered voters is 2.8 percentage points.

Some other results:
McConnell impression (fav-unfav) 45-48 (RVs 43-48, residents 40-48)
Grimes impression (fav-unfav) 41-43 (RVs 39-41, residents 36-39)

Only N.C., Ga. have had more television advertising in Senate races; McConnell's edge is more than 2 to 1

A rolling, updated Thursday-Friday roundup as we head toward the weekend . . .

• 
  More money has been spent on television advertising in Kentucky's Senate race than in any state this year except North Carolina and Georgia, according to data compiled by Kantar Media/ Campaign Media Analysis Group and the Center for Public Integrity. And in terms of total ads, shown in the chart above, Kentucky has seen more than any state but North Carolina. "Outside groups have outspent candidates and parties—$6.9 million to $4.9 million," Rebecca Ballhaus reports for The Wall Street Journal. "Republican candidates, committees and groups have spent $8.1 million on TV ads in the race, compared with $3.7 million spent by Democrats and affiliated groups. Mr. McConnell alone has spent $2.3 million, just above the $1.9 million his Democratic opponent, Alison Lundergan Grimes, has paid out so far."
• Grimes has a new TV ad, attacking McConnell's poor attendance record at Senate committee meetings, a line she introduced last month. "He only showed up seven percent of the time," a narrator says. "If you did that, you’d get fired. So should he."
• McConnell has a new TV ad, noting Grimes's support for President Obama's 2008 election, and 2012 re-election "after all this," a series of bad-news headlines, concluding, "Is there any doubt how she'd vote in Washington?"
• "McConnell's top adviser said Thursday that the campaign has no knowledge of subpoenas reportedly issued in an Iowa bribery investigation that seek information about McConnell's former campaign manager," Sam Youngman reports for the Lexington Herald-Leader. "McConnell adviser Josh Holmes also said the campaign has no information that indicates its former manager, Jesse Benton, did anything wrong as political director for then-U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's 2012 presidential campaign."
• "McConnell's evolution from political moderate to hard-line conservative has been driven by an instinct for self-preservation and a desire to win. So says a new and highly critical e-book out Sept. 16 that delves into the life and political back story of Kentucky's most powerful Republican," Jim Carroll reports for The Courier-Journal. "The Cynic: The Political Education of Mitch McConnell, published by Simon & Schuster, is authored by Alex MacGillis, senior editor at The New Republic," a liberal magazine.
• NBC News will release a new poll in the race at 9 a.m. Sunday.

Poll for CNN shows McConnell leading 50-46%; he tells contributors the race is like 'a knife fight'

Roundup for Wednesday, Sept. 2:

• A telephone poll taken for CNN Thursday, Aug. 28 through Monday, Sept. 1 shows Sen. Mitch McConnell had 50 percent of the self-described likely voters and Alison Lundergan Grimes had 46 percent. The poll did not include Libertarian James Patterson. Its error margin, which applies to each number, is plus or minus 4 percentage points, but the poll continues a favorable trend for McConnell. He had his highest percentage yet, and a lead that matches the one in last week's Bluegrass Poll. Also like the Bluegrass Poll, this one showed him with big leads in Eastern and Western Kentucky, where President Obama's anti-coal policies are a burden for Grimes. The poll showed Obama's statewide job rating at 29 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval. One small bright spot for Grimes was that she had a marginal lead among women, 52 to 45 percent (plus or minus 5.5 points), after posting only a 1-point edge among them in some recent surveys. Only 19 percent of voters in the poll said they might change their mind. White women were among the most likely to do so, at 23 percent. The poll showed the race at McConnell ahead only 47-46 among registered voters (plus of minus 3.5 points), suggesting that Grimes, as expected will have more trouble getting her voters to the polls. The likely-voters figure is also suspect, because 75 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were likely to vote and turnout is expected to be below 50 percent. For the detailed results, click here.
• McConnell told about 50 supporters at a fundraiser in Corbin Tuesday evening that the race is a "slugfest" and like a "knife fight," Trent Knuckles reports for the Corbin/Whitley News Journal. "I think we are going to be able to put this in the win column, but it's a very, very costly undertaking," McConnell said, adding that he "expects to raise about $30 million in campaign funds before voters go to the polls in November," Knuckles writes. "He estimates Grimes will have around $20 million. Pundits have said that it could be the first Senate race in the history of the nation to top $100 million in spending once cash from outside groups is factored in. McConnell said it dawned on him recently how big of a deal the race is in Kentucky when, during a recent campaign swing through the state, he had reporters from Australia and Japan following him around." McConnell said, "The eyes of the world are on this race. It's an international event. There is no presidential contest this year. This is the biggest race in the country. And the consequences are enormous." The event was held at the home of Terry Forcht, whose many business interests include the newspaper.
• Two commentators on Fox News raised questions about whether or not McConnell can be successful on Election Day, and what they might have to do with whether Republicans gain a Senate majority. On Fox News.com, radio host Richard Fowler called McConnell's re-election "highly unlikely" because of his high unfavorable ratings, and former White House assistant Brad Blakeman said McConnell could be the person to blame if Republicans don't gain the Senate majority. But Blakeman seemed to think McConnell would win.
• Grimes tried to keep alive the issue of the resignation of McConnell's campaign manager, issuing a press release posing 10 questions the senator should answer, starting with "When did you know that Benton was potentially tied to the federal criminal investigation of a bribery scandal?"
• McConnell was named federal legislator of the year by the Kentucky Narcotics Officers Association at their meeting in Louisville. For his official press release, which includes the text of his speech, click here.
• Grimes spoke to the Louisville Rotary Club but did not take questions, "in a departure from Rotary Club custom," Joe Arnold of WHAS-TV reports, quoting club Executive Director Debe Skidmore as saying the "Grimes team" had requested that.

McConnell mum on scandal; vets' group starts ad; senator's office asks papers to run anti-abortion piece

Plenty of news even before lunch, and bigger news after lunch . . .

• Sen. Mitch McConnell refused to take questions today about the resignation of his campaign manager in the wake of a bribery investigation of his last campaign. He told reporters after a Chamber of Commerce luncheon in Somerset, "We're moving on," tweets Bill Estep of the Lexington Herald-Leader. He said likewise when "asked if there was concern Jesse Benton's continued involvement could hurt campaign," Estep reports.
• In his later story, Estep writes, "He did not respond directly when asked what Benton had told him about the situation in Iowa and whether he was confident Benton had done nothing wrong. 'Yeah, we're moving on. We've got 60-some odd days left in the campaign. We're talking about the future and not the past,' McConnell said. Asked if there had been concern that having Benton stay on would cause a problem for the campaign, McConnell made clear he had nothing more to say about the issue. 'I think everything relating to that issue has already been discussed. It was all out there several days ago,' McConnell said. 'We're moving on ...' When it was noted the public hadn't heard directly from him about Benton, McConnell said, 'You're hearing from me now. 'I think it's time to move on and deal with the issues that are before us for the next six weeks.'"
• The Alison Lundergan Grimes campaign is trying to make a continuing story of the resignation In press releases today, the Grimes camp noted WAVE-TV's report that McConnell spokeswoman Allison Moore "hung up the phone after being questioned why we couldn't talk on the record about Benton's resignation." The segment appears in a new web ad which ends with the question, "What did Senator McConnell know and when did he know it?"
• In another release, the Grimes campaign passed along an article by Huffington Post political editor Howard Fineman which started by saying "The five words a senator least likes to hear are not 'you have lost the election.' They are 'The federal investigation is ongoing.'" It included this line: "In a textbook attempt to bury the news, Benton issued a statement to an accommodating local news outlet at the 6 p.m. start of a three-day holiday weekend." Benton's statement was released first to the Lexington Herald-Leader. Fineman concludes his piece with several questions for McConnell.
• Not to be outdone, the McConnell campaign followed with a release saying Grimes and liberal Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren "raised cash in a local slumlord’s luxurious house while ‘raw sewage’ flowed under the homes of his tenants" at a Northern Kentucky trailer park, according to an Aug. 21 report by James McNair of WFPL and the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting.
• McConnell's office often sends Kentucky newspapers a column under his name, and they are widely published. The latest is about his co-sponsorship of a bill to ban most abortions after 20 weeks, when the fetus can feel pain, and his opposition to "taxpayer-funded abortions." The email to editors from Press Secretary Robert Steurer said, "Please print the following column by Senator Mitch McConnell or post on your website." Abortion is an important issue to many Kentuckians, and most of them oppose it, but we know some publishers who would say "Buy an ad." Grimes supports abortion rights.
• Here's another substantive issue, which we missed earlier today: VoteVets, a liberal advocacy group, says it is spending $300,000 on TV ads in which Charles Erwin of Mayfield, a victim of Agent Orange in Vietnam tells McConnell, "I did my duty. But after 30 years in Washington, you failed to do yours. It's time for you to go." The ad cites McConnell's vote this year against a bill to improve veterans' benefits.

The American Legion said at the time of the vote, "In addition to including a full repeal of the military retiree cost-of-living-adjustment reduction recently passed by Congress," the bill would have provided "advance appropriations to ensure monthly compensation and pension, as well as education payments, are protected from future budget battles; offering in-state tuition protection for recently transitioned veterans, improving access to mental health and treatment for victims of sexual assault in the military, and authorizing construction of more than 20 community-based outpatient clinics to serve veterans in rural and remote communities." McConnell spokeswoman Allison Moore said in an email, "They are cherry-picking one step in the process, while ignoring the fact that he helped move it through the Senate and voted in support of final bill." UPDATE, Sept. 2: Carl Kaelin of Leitchfield, vice chair of the Veterans of Foreign Wars National Legislative Committee, said in a McConnell press release, "Kentucky veterans have no better friend than Senator Mitch McConnell. This ad is extremely misleading as Senator McConnell has been a vocal advocate about the urgent need for reform at the VA and was instrumental in helping ensure Senate passage of the important bipartisan veterans bill that was signed into law last month."

Grimes campaigns among union members, a key to the turnout she needs

By Anthony Pendleton
University of Kentucky School of Journalism and Telecommunications

Alison Grimes made stops in Lexington and Louisville at union-sponsored picnics on Labor Day. With nearly two months until Election Day, Grimes made the stops to appeal to union members, one of the important Democratic voter bases.

Grimes with Kathy and Max Thomas (Photo by Anthony Pendleton)

The Lexington Labor Day Picnic was held at the Bluegrass Fairgrounds at Masterson Station Park. The event did not include speeches, so Grimes spent most of her time taking photos and talking with people.

Grimes even took a group photo with some of the union members who want to show McConnell that “labor has a huge voice,” as master of ceremonies Mike Philbeck said as the directed the crowd to pose.

Turnout is important for Grimes because it is generally lower in midterm elections, especially among those who tend to vote Democratic.

This year was the first time the Labor Day Picnic had been held in 10 years, according to Bluegrass Central Labor Council President Robert Akin. he said the reason the picnic was revived was to show that labor is ”alive and well in the Bluegrass region.” But he also acknowledged that the election played an indirect role in bringing the picnic back, saying that “Because of the way the world operates in this day and age, we have to become involved in politics.”

When Grimes was interviewed, although she showed support for labor issues, she stuck to her main talking points. When asked how important the minimum wage issue is to her campaign, she immediately attacked McConnell by saying “It’s a holiday he forgot a long time ago,” then went on to say that Kentuckians are ready for change.

She referred to McConnell and used the phrase “millionaires and billionaires” quite often.

The Grimes campaign also sent out a press release detailing other labor issues she supports, such as equal pay for women, extending unemployment insurance, and “closing tax loopholes for companies the send jobs overseas.”

The campaign also released a new ad on Labor Day slamming McConnell for remarks that he made in a speech back in June at a conference sponsored by the Koch brothers. The Koch brothers, David and Charles, are billionaires in charge of Koch Industries. They have become infamous for being climate-change deniers and for opposing legislation that supports the average American.

Advertising from Grimes attacks McConnell for opposing legislation that would help the average American, such as increasing the minimum wage and extending unemployment insurance.

According to the most recent Bluegrass Poll, McConnell is still leading. That poll, which has a margin of error of 4.2 percent, shows that McConnell is leading 46 percent to 42 percent, with big leads in Eastern and Western Kentucky.

Fayette County Democratic Party Executive Committee Member Ken McClanahan believes he knows why McConnell is ahead. McClanahan says it’s because people in rural areas “don’t use logic” and that they’ll vote for McConnell only because he’s done “specific things for them or their neighbors” during his nearly 30 years as a senator.

McClanahan and Michael Bowles, who said they have walked precincts in support of Grimes, they say a line that they hear too often as they go door-to-door is that people think McConnell will be better for the coal industry.

On the coal issue, Grimes is focusing on coal miner safety. According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, Grimes says she would support two pieces of legislation proposed by West Virginia Sen. Jay Rockefeller. “One would strengthen whistleblower protections for miners and increase criminal penalties for safety violations. Another would make it easier to get black lung benefits and create grants for research into black lung.”

Labor Day roundup: Are we in for 'new levels of intrigue, venom and bare-knuckle brawling'?

A roundup for Labor Day, which may be the quietest day we have for two months . . .

• "As odds improve that the GOP will control both chambers of Congress next year, Senate Republicans are starting to plan an agenda intended to extract policy concessions from President Barack Obama without inducing the capital's market-rattling brinkmanship of recent years," Kristina Peterson reports for The Wall Street Journal., which rates the Senate race in Kentucky as leaning Republican and says Democrats see Sen. Mitch McConnell as "a formidable obstacle to Mr. Obama's legislative agenda." The story quotes McConnell's remarks to "a private June summit of conservatives and donors."
• In a wide-ranging "Political Paddock" column headlined "Making sense of Kentucky's soap opera U.S. Senate race,"  Sam Youngman of the Lexington Herald-Leader concludes, "The fact that McConnell is leading this race while being so unpopular indicates that, at the end of the day, the big question still remains, who do the majority of Kentucky voters find more repellent: McConnell or any candidate from the party of President Barack Obama? . . . Kentucky politics appears to be headed for new levels of intrigue, venom and bare-knuckle brawling."
• Alison Lundergan Grimes campaigned at unions' Labor Day picnics in Louisville and Lexington. The events didn't include speeches, but we were able to ask her and her supporters some questions, and student reporter Anthony Pendleton is preparing a report.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2014/08/31/3405894_making-sense-of-kentuckys-soap.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy